Wednesday, August 18, 2004

From Warlord to Messiah

When trying to explain the Islamists' global campaign of mass murder, both liberals and conservatives, despite their fierce mutual disagreements, make the same underlying mistake. People on the anti-war left believe that Al Qaeda attacked us because we're imperialist, or because we're racist, or because we don't do enough for Third-World hunger (yes, there are people who actually believe the hunger argument; most of them are Episcopalians). By contrast, many people on the pro-war right, especially President Bush, believe that the Islamists hate us for our freedoms, opportunities, and overall success as a society. In other words, the left believes that the Islamists hate us for our sins, and the right believes that they hate us for our virtues. Both sides commit the same narcissistic fallacy of thinking that the Islamist holy war against the West revolves solely around ourselves, around the moral drama of our goodness or our wickedness, rather than having something to do with Islam itself.
A very different perspective on the Islamist challenge comes from Mary Habeck, a military historian at Yale University. Speaking at the Heritage Foundation on August 13, Habeck said that the various jihadist groups base their war against non-Moslems on the Islamic sacred writings, particularly the Sira, which, unlike the Koran, tells the Prophet’s life in chronological sequence. Using Muhammed as their model, the jihadis live and think and act within paradigms provided by the stages of Muhammed’s political and military career. According to Habeck, this internally driven logic of Islam, and not any particular provocation, real or imagined, by some outside power, is the key to understanding why the jihadis do what they do.

The first stage or paradigm is Muhammed’s early life in Mecca, a non-Islamic society where no Islamic way of life is possible, and where Moslems are powerless and oppressed. The second paradigm is the hejira, the escape from Mecca to Medina, a new place that is more pure and where a true Islamic society and state can be founded. After this Islamic state is formed, the third paradigm kicks in. This is jihad, organized violence against non-Moslems for the purpose of building up the wealth and power of the Islamic community and bringing the world under a single Islamic state. Jihadists conceive and rationalize their own activities in terms of these paradigms. Thus when Osama bin Laden left Saudi Arabia for Sudan, and when he later left Sudan for Afghanistan, he saw those journeys as corresponding with the hejira, leaving a corrupt land, where he was powerless, for a more pure Islamic place from which jihad could be waged.

In addition to the three stages in the growth of the Islamic community culminating in jihad, there are three basic approaches to waging jihad, called collectively the Method of Muhammed, that various Islamist groups respectively adopt toward the ultimate goal of establishing the world-wide rule of Islam. The jihadis' choice of method depends on whom they see as their immediate enemy in that larger struggle; each jihadist group, moveover, is defined by which of these methods it adopts. The first method is to fight the Near Enemy prior to fighting the Far Enemy. The Near Enemy is anyone inside Islamic lands, whether it is an occupier or someone who has taken away territory that used to be Islamic. The second method is to fight the Greater Unbelief—the major enemy, which today is the United States—before the Lesser Unbelief. And the third method is to fight the Apostates first, and then the other Unbelievers. Apostates are false Moslems, people who call themselves Moslems but aren't, a group that includes secularist Moslems such as Saddam Hussein as well as Shi’ites, who are considered heretics.

It is these notions, deeply embedded in the jidadis’ reading of the life of Muhammed, and not determined by what is happening in what we think of as the real world, that determine their major strategic directions and whom they choose to kill. For example, the terrorists who murdered 190 people in Madrid on March 11, 2004 did not target Spain because of its involvement with the U.S.-led Iraqi reconstruction; the group had been planning the Madrid attack for two years, going back to before the American invasion of Iraq. They attacked Spain because it was the Near Enemy—a formerly Islamic land that they hoped to win back for Islam. Similarly, regarding the all-important question whether the Wahhabist Osama bin Laden would have been willing to work with the secularist Apostate Saddam Hussein in an attack on America, Habeck says it is entirely possible, because bin Laden believes that his primary enemy is the Greater Unbelief, the United States, and therefore in the short term he would cooperate with an Apostate such as Hussein. Then, after America had been finished off with Hussein's help, bin Laden with the enhanced power and prestige gained from that victory could redirect the jihad back at Hussein and other Moslem Apostates.

The key point is that, while specific actions by the West might provoke the jihadis to greater attacks, their fundamental strategic and military decisions are not determined by anything done by the United States or Europe or by other major enemies of Islam such as the Hindus, but rather by which Method of Muhammed each jihadi faction follows, and each of these strategies has its own internal rationality, though it is not a rationality that makes sense in non-Islamic terms.

The same is true for Wahhabism itself, says Habeck. Wahhabism began in the 18th century when there was no Western colonial power in the Islamic world; it was not set off by any Western intrusion into the Moslem lands. Similarly, the contemporary Islamist idea that America is the center of all that is evil in the world, making America the “Greater Unbelief”, was conceived by a Moslem scholar between 1948 and 1951 when he was residing in the United States. This was decades before the U.S. had any large-scale involvement with Israel, and decades before its culture spiraled downhill, though, from the point of view of that visiting Moslem, America was already quite decadent at that point and ripe for destruction.

What is most striking in the Method of Muhammed is the utter absence of any transcendent notion of morality. Unlike in traditional Western religion and philosophy, where God or the Good is the measure of human actions, in Islamism (which after all is simply a pure form of Islam) the measure of human actions is the shifting power tactics and military strategies of a desert brigand and war leader.

Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Moral Wars and Opinion Polls

Since inception, The State of Israel has been fighting, sometimes bullet wars, most of the time mind wars. The biggest threat for this State is ordinary people that question the state of Israel. And by questioning I don’t mean its current policy but its right to be. Therefore it is not a problem based on land and coexistence. When there is a conflict between two parts, and one of them does not accept the existence of the other, it is very difficult to negotiate anything. If Israel had ten times more land or one tenth of the actual land what difference would it make? It stood beyond the infamous green line for many years, did it make her enemies more appease?

To try to summarize the problem as a conflict of two peoples one land does not take you to the base of the conflict

At the end of World War II, during the Nuremberg process, captured Nazis where being questioned, allied forces wanted to understand the drive under the Nazi hate machine. There were technical questions and general questions about the 14 years of Nazi rule. But there was one question in particular that explained more than many. When confronted with the question “what could the Jews have said or done to be spared?” They did not understand the question. The cable inside those minds could not spark an answer. Because there was “nothing” that they could’ve said or done to be spared. The Nazi hate for Jews was catalogued as “irrational”.

So there you have it, if the other party can do nothing to make you happy except disappearing all together, then you have a case of irrational hatred.

The Hamas Charter declaration, does not talk about a Palestinian State, but mentions many times the destruction of “The Zionist Entity” that is irrational. To expose, recruit and teach to hate your enemy more than you love your own life it is irrational too.

For many years after the 1967 war, Egypt wanted the Sinai back, it was willing to negotiate a peace agreement, with the precondition not to inscribe the words State of Israel anywhere in the document.

Check the Gages

Certainly not every Palestinian thinks that the destruction of Israel is the only way. There has been talks about empowering the moderate, reforming its leadership and institutions. This could yield a very promising future. The question is when? And Who? Arafat has spoken time and again for peace in English and of War in Arab. He has betrayed every single hand that he has shaken. So it’s diffidently not him and now this is certainly not the time.

Why not right now? There is a gage, which measures when peace will be viable, and this is the Palestinian Public opinion poll. Israel has asked too many times to bring down the terror apparatus, as a precondition for talks, Israel does not get it. How can you make illegal in 2004 something the 67.6% of the population on the Gaza strip supports?

Israel’s biggest threat is to fall into the need to make friends illusion; to make peace under these conditions is certainly naive. Israel needs to focus on conflict management rather than conflict solving. If there is a need for building a physical barrier to save the lives of its Citizens, then so be it.

So pretty much between 5 and 7 out of 10 people in all the Palestinian towns and areas suffer from irrational hatred towards Israel. Well then anything Israel says or does right now will not matter much. The Change has to come pretty much from within the Palestinian Society. Education plays a very big roll, but even if there was a sudden change in leadership and if this leadership compromises with the principals of coexistence and tolerance, it would probably take more than one generation to achieve some kind of normality.

These are the mean results of a poll inside Gaza and the West Bank in the year 2004.

1) In recent weeks there is a sharp decrease in the level of violence exerted by both sides. In your opinion should Palestinians continue nevertheless the suicide bombings inside Israel if an opportunity arises?
1) Definitely yes 21.9%
2) Yes 36.7%
3) No 31.6%
4) Definitely no 5.5%
5) DK/NA 4.3%


2) After Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and while awaiting general elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, there is a talk about Hamas participation in the administration of the Strip. Do you support or oppose this participation?
1) Strongly support 39.6%
2) Support 50.1%
3) Oppose 5.5%
4) Strongly oppose 2.1%
5) DK/NA 2.8%

3) If you support Hamas participation in the administration of the Gaza Strip, how much should its share in decision making be? For example, should it 10% or 90% or something between the two? (Give a percentage between 10 and 90)
The percentage should be ----------------
Median 50%

Please vistit the link to see the complete poll.

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2004/p12b.html

Friday, August 13, 2004

The Common Denominator

What are we fighting for? It must be the oil. We depend on it, and they have it. For national security reasons it’s better to have two suppliers than one. But we don’t loot the oil, we buy it. So why are we fighting? If there was a lesson learned in the twentieth century,It is that there are more effective ways to conquer in the long run than waging war.

While history shows a long line of empires, all have failed in the end because there is a conflict of interest between the people beeing conquered and their subjugators. This friction is the main force that cuts the rope. In the end, it is always the same, either independence or submision.

But America is not the classic imperialistic power, where territory expansion and subduing other peoples is the main source of income. This country profits from trade. But there is a catch; trading is by definition, beneficial to both parties. So there is no apparent conflict of interest. In theory, this is the dawn of a great era. So why are we at war?

For millennia wars were waged throwing everything at the enemy, salaries of soldiers came from the spoils, rape and murder were a given, and the options were total annihilation or submission. In today’s war, societies in the west pay with taxes thier wages, and condemn if civilians are murdered intentionally. Islamic fundamentalism sees this as foreign. The evolution of thought went two separate ways in the west and in the Middle East.

The fact that religion and politics are intertwined in so many countries in the Middle East, by it self is shouting at us that the enlightment era has not started in this part of the world. Most of the moral codes, we have adopted regarding the use of force, are seen as signs of weaknesses.

The Arab leadership has a very good grip on its people. Religion, politics, censorship and corruption have become ares of expertise. Those lessons were learned in the west roughly 300 years ago, when societies thought that mixing government and church was not such a good idea. Islamic leadership will not cede power with out a fight. It will justify unthinkable actions in order to achieve its goals.

The colision of moral, between East and West could be condesned in to a value. Arab leaders have no problem with the trade part, the problem is liberty; the grip that religion and politics have is quite strong, Liberty brings democracy in its wake, and that concept has the rulling class a bit scared. So in basic terms, Arab leadership feels threatened by liberty, they have pushed fundamental Islam, and passed the point of no return. Like a wild beast it starts attacking, it hides in every single nation that has a reasonable Islamic population, and now we need to defend our selves. We are the big Satan.

All too many times, has mankind fallen into the path of killing in the name of God. Lets just hope that this time Arab society picks up its tab before it’s to late.

Its just Business

One of Hollywood’s most famous lines has been “Its nothing personal, just business” said during a family reunion of the Corlione family in the award wining movie “The Godfather”. This same line could have come out of Mr. Arafat during the trashing of the Oslo accords. The whole world was astonished. And in the echo was the word why? Incriminating evidence, and a rampant corruption inside the PA seem to point in that direction.

The Palestinian leadership has found a very lucrative business; 50 years of investment in hatred are paying off. Massive amounts have entered the realm of the P.A. The Business is simple, they exploit the irrational hatred suffered by many Palestinians towards Israelis, They scarify a few numb and idiotic volunteers, kill some innocent Israelis, and wait for a counter attack most of the time relatively small. So sacrificing the lives of some and getting cash and sympathy from all over the world has been a very lucrative business. The Palestinian Leadership has adopted the “break your own bones and beg in the street” scheme.

Mr. Arafat knew then, and knows now that the Intifada would not break Israel’s back. But he also knows that the P.A. in crisis will bring more sympathy. And sympathy in this business means cash. So the Saudis, the Europeans, the Japanese and others are in for the ride. As of today Arafat is the absolute power, inside the P.A. every sympathizer might as well just deposit their donation directly to Mr. Arafat’s personal bank account and avoid further embarrassment. But don’t worry just a fraction of this funds have been engaged in fomenting Terror. What an embarrassment. Imagine the French, using tax money to promote terror elsewhere. The European Union is looking into this matter right now.

The net worth of Yasser, has been estimated to be close to one billion. So why make peace when war is so lucrative? Even if you loose you end up winning. So is this a decent business? Absolutely not.
Well now we see why there was this gigantic opposition to the Israeli fence. Arafat must have thought, “If this fence works, I am in deep trouble” So he pulled all his strings, (and he has many) to stop the construction. The Project will continue thanks in part for the 5 countries that supported Israel. Having one of them with the veto power, really helped.