100 Years of Warm War
In time the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) report on Iran, which assumed that Iran stopped its military objective of becoming a nuclear power and therefore eliminating the possibility of an allied attack, will turn to be the bigest blunder of the Bush administration, given the current scenario it has become very unlikely that any action will be taken.
The U.S. will engage in 2008 in its own election, it will be a year of beautifying the Iraqi beast and pushing the economy to contain a major shift in the election. In time throwing a huge responsibility for the new administration, therefore having an early war with Iran is highly unlikely and may also be to late. Iran just got a free pass this crucial year.
The EU has shown little or no sign of life regarding the threat that is brewing next door. Finally Israel, has shown hints that it will advance its missile interception defence systems and it counter attack measures instead of a full out war with Iran. (But we never know)
Internal change in Iran is also very unlikely, 100 dollars a barrel is all good news for the theocracy. And that extra Income will buy all the time they need.
So there it is, prepare for a Military Nuclear Iran in late 2008 to mid 2009. The world got a glimpse on what to expect after Iran declares it has developed it's own nuclear arsenal. The first balancing act will be locally, being visible already, as Egypt and the Saudis announce a Nuclear ambition.
During the cold war, neither the U.S. nor the Soviets engaged in a direct attack. Here the mix has become much more flammable. Iran is constantly eroding and attacking U.S Interest in Iraq, and directly attacking Israel via its proxies like Hezbollah. Now you have 3 (or more) nuclear countries in an active warm war, with 3 scenarios, they all have Iran taking initiative. The extremely optimistic is that Iran, will act in a rational manner and use its arsenal as a defence mechanism therefore stopping all engagement with the U.S., Israel and or any other Sunni regimen to evade confrontation. The fairly optimistic scenario is that the Iranians continue with their terrorism activities and that there will be a number of years of warm war with no escalation. The pessimistic view is Iran using its weaponized nuclear arsenal in an attack or warm war escalating to all out or hot war.
Hoping for a 100 years of warm war are my best wishes for you all.
The U.S. will engage in 2008 in its own election, it will be a year of beautifying the Iraqi beast and pushing the economy to contain a major shift in the election. In time throwing a huge responsibility for the new administration, therefore having an early war with Iran is highly unlikely and may also be to late. Iran just got a free pass this crucial year.
The EU has shown little or no sign of life regarding the threat that is brewing next door. Finally Israel, has shown hints that it will advance its missile interception defence systems and it counter attack measures instead of a full out war with Iran. (But we never know)
Internal change in Iran is also very unlikely, 100 dollars a barrel is all good news for the theocracy. And that extra Income will buy all the time they need.
So there it is, prepare for a Military Nuclear Iran in late 2008 to mid 2009. The world got a glimpse on what to expect after Iran declares it has developed it's own nuclear arsenal. The first balancing act will be locally, being visible already, as Egypt and the Saudis announce a Nuclear ambition.
During the cold war, neither the U.S. nor the Soviets engaged in a direct attack. Here the mix has become much more flammable. Iran is constantly eroding and attacking U.S Interest in Iraq, and directly attacking Israel via its proxies like Hezbollah. Now you have 3 (or more) nuclear countries in an active warm war, with 3 scenarios, they all have Iran taking initiative. The extremely optimistic is that Iran, will act in a rational manner and use its arsenal as a defence mechanism therefore stopping all engagement with the U.S., Israel and or any other Sunni regimen to evade confrontation. The fairly optimistic scenario is that the Iranians continue with their terrorism activities and that there will be a number of years of warm war with no escalation. The pessimistic view is Iran using its weaponized nuclear arsenal in an attack or warm war escalating to all out or hot war.
Hoping for a 100 years of warm war are my best wishes for you all.
posted by Moisesmn at 12:12 PM
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